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Gordon Glantz is the managing editor of the Times Herald and an award winning columnist.

Monday, November 3, 2008

I Can See Clearly Now

One thing I won't miss about Election season are the polls. Here a poll, there a poll -- everywhere a poll, poll.

And all polls, I've come to learn, are not created equal. Some are skewed left, some right. Some are based on phone calls. Others, the Internet or door to door.

They also tend to run a few days behind. So if there is a surge one way or the other, we don't really see it for two or three days. By then, the other side has done or said something to make it null and void anyway.

What I have done is create the G2 Tracking Poll. I take a cross-section of the more reputable ones and come up with my own equation.

So ... with the Election tomorrow, here is what the G2 poll is telling us:

- John McCain, as some polls are indicating, has closed the gap in terms of popular vote.

- Barack Obama has a stranglehold on the Electoral College, even if McCain comes too close for comfort on the popular vote.

I see Obama breaking 300 electoral votes, which puts him well over the top. He will struggle to get to 50 percent in popular vote, although I'm going to say he comes away with 51 to McCain's 47. The other two are divided between the independent candidates.

So there you have it - Barack Obama is your next president of the United States, according to the G2 tracking poll.

The best news? No more Sarah Palin!

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Right On!
Make as much sense as any other poll!

November 3, 2008 at 12:26 PM 
Blogger tlees2 said...

"No more Sarah Palin!"

You betcha :)

November 3, 2008 at 12:26 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wink!

November 3, 2008 at 1:26 PM 
Blogger Montco PA Dem said...

Allow me to humbly review comments made by an astute local observer last May 16:
I just don't get the doom and gloom about November. Because it's getting clearer and clearer that whoever the Democratic candidate is, they are going to win an overwhelming victory...

And again on June 1:
It's going to take a tidal wave of epic proportions to wash away the stench of the past eight years, but that's exactly what's coming: A great big Democratic wave.

"A great big Democratic wave"...Coming your way tomorrow. Enjoy!

November 3, 2008 at 1:39 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And Oink!

November 3, 2008 at 2:05 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With a whole lotta lisptick!

November 3, 2008 at 2:06 PM 

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