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Gordon Glantz is the managing editor of the Times Herald and an award winning columnist.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Call Me The Breeze

Anybody feel a draft?

I do. And it's the only draft that matters.

It's the NFL Draft - a holiday here in the mystical town of Gordonville.

It starts Saturday with the first two rounds and continues Sunday with rounds 3-7. New rules for how long teams will have between picks to beef up their teams in this annual meat market should make watching the draft less laborious.

Moreover, with the Eagles -- my Eagles -- having a plethora of picks, we're looking at a pretty entertaining weekend.

We are invited to a Holy Communion gathering Saturday, but should be good to go way before the Eagles choose submit a name. My wife has illusions - or, perhaps, delusions - that we are going to do things like organize the garage and/or the basement over the weekend.

LOL. It's not happening.

Sorry, dear.

Not even the great melter of my heart -- my daughter, Sofia -- can divert my attention from the task at hand. That task, you might ask, is to pathetically sit powerless while the Eagles do what they are going to do regardless of what I scream -- or throw -- at the boob tube.

But I do have this blog to get my preferences on the record now, for posterity, before Andy Reid and Co. screw it all up.

Let us begin this drill with a position-by-position breakdown as they relate to the needs of the Eagles.

QUARTERBACK

Need (on scale of 1-5):
3

This need-level rating may surprise some, but the Eagles have been believers in taking a QB in drafts where they have had extra picks to burn. This year, they have one pick in each of the first five rounds and four in the sixth and two in the seventh. More picks, perhaps even a second- or third-rounder, could be added if disgruntled cornerback Lito Sheppard is dealt away. This season could be the last for Donovan McNabb, whose contract explodes to a ridiculous amount in 2009 and whose heir apparent, Kevin Kolb, is waiting in the wings. There are rumors that there may be a trade value for backup A.J. Feeley, who could end up third on the depth chart here this season anyway. If true, there would certainly be room for another quarterback. It is said that a team is only as strong as its No. 2 quarterback. Following that logic, a No. 2 of the future needs to be brought in and groomed behind Kolb. So when and where would the Eagles pull the trigger? Probably in the fifth or sixth round. I shuddered in horror when I heard the Eagles were intrigued by University of Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan, who set all kinds of records in a pass-happy offense but looked horrible against better competition in a bowl game. I personally like two guys from the same city. There is San Diego U. quarterback Josh Johnson who threw 43 (yes, 43) touchdowns last year and only one pick. However, his stock has risen from the fifth- to sixth-round range to as high as a possible third-rounder. That's too high for the Eagles, given their other needs. If I were them, I'd wait until Round 5 and hope that San Diego State signal-caller Kevin O'Connell is still on the board. Other guys who may fit the offense are USC's John David Booty, Oregon's Dennis Dixon and Tennessee's Erik Ainge. Paul Smith of Tulsa, a Jeff Garcia-type by some accounts, could be had as an undrafted free agent and developed.

RUNNING BACK

Need:
2.5

Brian Westbrook is one of the top five backs in the league, but he is also 29 and misses at least a game or two per year. Backup Correll Buckhalter remains serviceable but is also on the downside of his career and in the last year of his contract. Tony Hunt, a third-round pick last year out of Penn State, remains in the mix but saw decreased playing time as his rookie season progressed. Ryan Moats, a third-round pick from three years hence who once showed great promise, will be trying to battle back from a broken ankle. If the right guy falls to the Eagles, they could grab a back. The team is very particular, however, about a RB's skill set. Blocking and receiving ability are musts. It would be nice if return ability counted, too, but that has not been the history. Some prognosticators who don't know Reid's tendencies as well as I do have played matchmaker for us by sending Felix Jones of Arkansas our way in mock drafts. Jones, the college understudy to sure-fire Top 5 pick Darren McFadden, will make a nice change of pace back for some team -- maybe even in the Dallas Cowboys -- but probably not us unless he falls through the second round and into our laps. I personally like some guys who could be had in rounds 2 and 3. My wish list includes Ray Rice of Rutgers (2,012 yards last year and close to 5,000, along with 49 touchdowns, in three seasons), Matt Forte of Tulane (2,127 yards and 23 TDs last season) and Kevin Smith of Central Florida, who chalked up a remarkable 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns last year and reminds me a lot of former Minnesota Vikings' standout Robert Smith (no relation). However, I'd be happy if the Birds waited until Round 6 and took someone like Oklahoma State's Dantrell Savage. He is small (5-8 1/2, 187) but has good hands and is a solid return man (a pressing need we'll address later). Two others who could probably be had in Round 7 or as free agents who are similar to Savage are Chad Simpson of Morgan State, Anthony Alridge of Houston and Rafael Little of Kentucky.

FULLBACK

Need: 2

I'm not sold that either converted defensive tackle Dan Klecko or Jason Davis, who the Eagles have kept around the last two years (one on injured reserve and the second on the practice squad), can be a NFL fullback. Then again, full-time fullbacks -- for reasons I can't explain -- have become an endangered species. Klecko brings value with his versatility while Davis can also play some running back. The top fullback in the draft, by far, is West Virginia's Owen Schmidt and he won't be drafted in the middle rounds. With all their extra picks, assuming they don't deal them away for choices in 2009 and beyond, the Eagles might consider someone like Lex Hilliard of Montana in the sixth or seventh round. He ran for more than 1,300 yards twice in his career as a bruising Division 1-AA tailback and has the size (5-11 1/2, 233 pounds), toughness (battled back from a career-threatening injury) and receiving ability to garner a chance to be groomed for the future should the Klecko Experiment fail and/or Davis doesn't cut it.

WIDE RECEIVER

Need:
4.5

Don't listen to Reid's jive talkin'. If a receiver like Roy Williams of Detroit or Chad Johnson of Cincinnati isn't added in a swap for the No. 19 overall pick and/or Sheppard, one or two receivers will be tabbed from the college pool. National guys evaluate the Eagles from an objective point of view and have them taking someone like Limas Sweed of Texas, Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma, Devin Thomas of Michigan State or DeSean Jackson of California in the first round. If Jackson, an undersized game-breaker with NFL return ability slides to the Eagles in Round 2, they will take him. My sources say he came in for a secret workout and the Eagles like what they saw. If not, I'm in love -- not literally! -- with Jordy Nelson of Kansas State. He has size (6-2 1/2, 215 pounds), respectable speed (4.52 in the 40-yard dash) and unreal run-after-the-catch ability. He returned five punts last year and two went for touchdowns. A high school quarterback who was initially recruited to play safety, he adds the ability to throw some sweet option passes. Since the Eagles barely play rookie receivers, Nelson would add value in other areas and rid us - finally! - of Greg Lewis (I'll drive G-Lew to the airport personally). The problem with Nelson is that he may be a reach in Round 2 but might not last until the Eagles pick again in the third round. If we don't get Jackson or Nelson, don't be surprised if one of the following are selected as surrogates -- oft-injured but talented Earl Doucet of LSU, Harold Carmichael-clone James Hardy of Indiana, Donnie of Avery of Houston (where he was a favorite target of Kolb) or Earl Bennett of Vanderbilt (who, like Jackson, came in for a favorable workout). There are some other guys who would bring instant juice to the anemic return game -- Appalachian State's Dexter Jackson, Virginia Tech's Eddie Royal, Florida's Andre Caldwell -- but the Eagles, rightly or wrongly, want a receiver first and return man second. They could, in the later rounds, look to someone like Kevin Robinson of Utah State -- who is a polished returner but an unrefined receiver -- but don't count on it.

TIGHT END

Need:
1.5

Unless the Eagles really don't want L.J. Smith around, there really isn't room on the roster for a tight end. The enigmatic Smith - who is a borderline Pro Bowler when healthy and focused -- has a year to prove his worth to either the Eagles or a future employer. Second-year tight end, Brent Celek, provides a solid No. 2 and free-agent signee Kris Wilson looks to be the new third-stringer. Still, the Eagles look at this position much like they do quarterback. With extra picks, they may take a flier on a late-round project. Want a name or two? Jacob Tamme of Kentucky or Kory Sperry of Colorado State.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Need: 3

I don't see the need as great as others, including the Birds' brass, but the writing is on the wall. Some more big bodies are coming to town. Longtime bookends Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan are entering the final years of their contracts. Runyan will probably retire. Thomas may try to hook on elsewhere, meaning there could be some draft-day trade value to a team like Baltimore that is in dire need of a left tackle. There are a few scenarios and it's hard to get a read on what the team might be thinking. Have they given up on 2006 third-round choice Max Jean-Gilles as a starting guard? Are they happy with center Jamaal Jackson? There is left guard Todd Herremans, who could go back to his natural position of tackle. I fear the Eagles are Jonesing to move two-time Pro Bowl right guard Shawn Andrews to the other tackle spot. That would mean drafting a guard. If not, they will be drafting a tackle. Perhaps they'll take best guard or tackle on the board -- in either Round 1 or 2 -- and tinker with the parts from there. They would have a season to figure it out. It was looking like Virginia's Brandon Albert (6-7, 315), who is a guard with tackle-type footwork, would be a lock for the Birds in the first round. But his stock has risen to as high as the top half of the first round. None of the other pure guards figure to even be Day 1 picks. There are, however, some tackles in a deep class whose names you might want to practice saying now. One of them will probably be an Eagle come Saturday. They are Boise State's Ryan Clady (6-6, 315), Pitt's Jeff Otah (6-6 1/2, 340), Boston College's Gosder Cherilus (6-6 1/2, 315), USC's Sam Baker (6-5 1/2, 308), Vanderbilt's Chris Williams (6-6 1/2, 317) or Kansas' Anthony Collins (6-6 1/2, 310). Don't be surprised if a center -- Arizona State's Mike Pollak, Notre Dame's John Sullivan, Bowling Green's Kory Licthtensteiger or USC's versatile Matt Spanos -- is added in the middle or late rounds.

DEFENSIVE END

NEED:
3

There are rumors the Eagles are inquiring about Jason Taylor of the Dolphins and would make a move for the aging sack machine if the price were right (i.e. a Day 2 pick). This tells me they are still not happy with the group at this position, even after adding Chris Clemons via free agency. If they don't pull the trigger on a deal, they could keep their eye on players like Calais Campbell of Miami (Fla.), Lawrence Jackson of USC, Jeremy Thompson of Wake Forest or Chris Ellis of Virginia Tech and hope they fall through the cracks to the middle rounds.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

NEED:
4.5

The Eagles have two good, young starters in former first-round picks Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley but sorely need a third tackle for the rotation. As close to the vest as Reid usually is about team needs, he even let it be known. A perfect fit for the scheme would be Trevor Laws of Notre Dame and he should be there in Round 2. Some others -- Auburn's Pat Sims, N.C. State's DeMario Pressley and Maryland's Dre Moore -- are unrefined products who may not give you much as a rookie.

LINEBACKER

NEED:
2

If someone with value fell, the Eagles would snatch him up. That said, they have gushed so much over their young group of linebackers that it is hard to conceive that another would be added high in the draft. I do have two sleepers for Round 7 or as post-draft signees: Steve Allen of West Texas A&M (he literally knocks people out when he tackles them) and Shane Simmons of Western Michigan.

CORNERBACK

NEED:
4.5

No point in unloading Sheppard and not replacing him. Don't believe the propaganda about Joselio Hanson being the third corner. He is a No. 4 and they know it. Additionally, this draft is rich in corners. As many as five could go in Round 1 and nine in the first two rounds. The Eagles would be well-served to grab one. The best, and a perfect fit, is Leodis McKelvin of Troy. With Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown as the starters, he wouldn't have to start here right away and would add instant impact to the return game. However, we'd have to use Sheppard and the No. 19 pick to move into the top 10 to get him. I'd do it in a heartbeat but the Eagles would probably grab Albert, the aforementioned guard/tackle, if they made such a move. A solid choice would by Oklahoma's Reggie Smith, who can return punts efficiently and may eventually be a candidate to be converted to safety. He is also might be the most ready to step in as a nickel back in the slot, but his ceiling is not as high as some others. Mike Jenkins of South Florida has surreal talent and return ability and may just be the pick if the Eagles stay put at No. 19. Another talent whose stock is hard to read is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie of Tennessee State. He could be there at No. 19 or even in the second round or, just as easily, get snatched up in the top 15. Another name matched with the Eagles with Aqib Talib of Kansas, who brings size (6-1 1/2, 205) to the position but is a step slow. He was also eaten alive by the aforementioned Jordy Nelson, the wide receiver I love -- not literally! -- from Kansas State. Later on, the Eagles could take Tracy Porter of Indiana, who is a fluid return man and projects as a serviceable DB.

SAFETY

NEED: 2.5

This is where I differ from some, in terms of immediate need. Even if this is Brian Dawkins' final season, there are options. If a stud corner (see above) is taken, Sheldon Brown could move to safety and extend his career by several seasons. Right now -- with Quentin Mikell, J.R. Reed and Sean Considine on the team -- they could wait until next year to grab a safety high if the need still seems pressing. Still, many are saying that Kenny Phillips of Miami (Fla.) is a future Bird, period. Where this is smoke, there could be fire. And the smoke smells like bust to me. I prefer DeJuan Morgan of N.C. State, but that's just me not wanting to overdraft a guy because he played at Miami. I'd personally wait until the middle rounds. A hitter like Notre Dame's Tom Zbikowski, an amateur boxer who the Eagles' fans would love, could be had on Day 2. He even returns punts, although probably not much better than Reno Mahe.

Kicker/Punter

Need:
2

With a seventh-rounder, why not? Maybe you can find a kicker to stash on the practice squad as insurance against the possible decline of David Akers. And punter? Sav Rocca got better as last season progressed, but he was still only average. The best punter is Durant Brooks of Georgia Tech and he'll be taken long before the Eagles might want to dabble. Someone like Tim Reyer of Kanas State or Mike Dragosavich of North Dakota State might be worth the time.

Return Specialist

Need:
5

Sad but true, the Eagles don't concur with my maxed-out need rating. They may take a corner, receiver, running back or safety who does it and give them a look but ...
Me? I'd make it a mandatory requirement for any skill position guy. I even like a college quarterback, Jayson Foster of Georgia Southern, as a late-round pick or post-draft priority signing. At 5-7, he can't play quarterback in the NFL but he makes would-be tacklers look like mannequins in the open field.

There are many ways this could go, and it's impossible to predict trades. One or two, at minimum, will be made. Based on the fleeting assumption that there are no deals, here is my final mock draft for the Eagles:

1) Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
2) Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
3) Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State
4) Tom Zbikowski, SS, Notre Dame
5) Kevin O'Connell, QB, San Diego State
6A) Matt Spanos, C, USC
6B) Geoff Schwartz, OT, Oregon
6C) Kevin Robinson, WR, Utah State
6D) Dantrell Savage, RB, Oklahoma State
7A) Steve Allen, ILB, West Texas A&M
7B) Jayson Foster, Athlete, Georgia Southern

Summary: Jenkins, Nelson, Zbikowski, Robinson, Savage and Foster are all return men. One has to be an upgrade, right? Instead of burning a high pick on an offensive lineman who'll be inactive all season anyway, I went for Spanos and Schwartz in Round 6. Spanos can play center or guard and Schwartz, a 332-pound right tackle with Runyan's motor, could be made into a guard. If neither one progresses, you can always address offensive line next season.

Who am I kidding? The above will never happen. The Eagles will do something like this instead:

1) Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
2) Kenny Phillips, SS, Miami (Fla.)
3) Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
4) Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
5) Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
6A) Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
6B) Michael Grant, CB/S, Arkansas
6C) Curtis Johnson, OLB, Clark Atlanta
6D) Traded for fifth-rounder in 2024
7A) Traded for sixth-rounder in 2184
7B) Art Carmody, PK, Louisville

Summary: Unless they sweeten the pot and make some deals, I better take an extra blood pressure pill.




6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice informative breakdown. I hope Jenkins is still there without trading up. Your guy in the paper has him going much earlier. Thanks for the thorough look. I don't get this kind of think from strictly an Eagles perspective too easily.

April 25, 2008 at 7:16 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You missed your calling, G2. Very informative. It's still too boring to watch, but I at least have a road map for when I read about who they picked over the weekend.

April 25, 2008 at 8:44 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I tried watching the draft once. It was long and very boring. It was a lot like this blog entry!

April 25, 2008 at 9:57 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well said 9:57, well said.

April 25, 2008 at 10:26 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Speak for yourselves. This told me more than anything else I've read about the draft from an "Birds' Eye" view. It won't be as long and boring now because I took 8 minutes to read and comprehend this well-organized and thought-out posting. It wasn't politics, GG's specialty, but it showed he knows his stuff.

April 25, 2008 at 12:29 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Impressive, the way it turned out!

April 26, 2008 at 6:31 PM 

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